Options-implied expected move through earnings

The move the options market prices through the next earnings report: the scheduled report date paired with the at-the-money implied volatility of the expiry that brackets it. Shown as the dollar and percent move, the expected range, and the event premium — how much richer that expiry's vol trades than the front expiry's vol carried to the same tenor. The expected move is not a directional indicator.

AAPLoptions-implied move through the next print · real-time

Next earnings

2027-01-27

73 days out

Implied move

±12.78%

±$45.52 on 2027-02-19 · +23d after

ATM IV · event

24.8%

96-day at-the-money vol

Event premium

+3.50pt

vs front vol at this tenor ±9.28%

$310.75spot $356.27$401.79

±1σ range under the lognormal convention implied volatility is quoted in: approximately 68% probability that the close lands inside it if that convention holds. No realized hit rate for this range is retained.

Prior prints — realized moves (implied-move history not retained)

Historical option chains are not archived; no prior implied move is available for comparison and no hit rate is computed. Realized move: the change in AAPL across the session that absorbed each prior print.

Print	Session	Reaction day	Realized move
2026-11-02	after close	2026-11-03	-1.90%
Q3 2026	session not on record	—	—
Q2 2026	session not on record	—	—
Q1 2026	session not on record	—	—

1 of 4 prints could be measured. The remainder carry no announcement session on the calendar; their realized move is left blank.

AAPL reports on 2027-01-27, 73 days out. The expiry that spans the report (2027-02-19) is pricing an options-implied move of ±12.78% (±$45.52). Event premium: 3.50pt over the front expiry's vol (18.0%) carried to the same tenor (±9.28%). The front expiry's own ±1.19% is a 1-day move and is not the baseline; a move scales with √time, so the comparison is vol-to-vol at the bracket tenor. That gap is the event premium the market is paying for the print. Note: the nearest listed expiry settles 23 days after the report, so this is the move to that expiry — it includes the post-earnings calendar, not just the isolated earnings day.

Implied move = spot × ATM implied vol × √(days/365) — the ±1σ priced into the expiry that brackets the earnings date. Event premium = bracket move − (front ATM vol × √(bracket days/365)): the front's vol carried to the bracket's tenor, re-derivable as bracket move × front vol ÷ bracket vol. Earnings date from the earnings calendar. The expected move is not a directional indicator.