● macro reaction — surprise vs. forecast z-score
How does SPY react to CPI, jobs and the Fed?
Markets do not trade the headline number — they trade the surprise versus the forecast. For each major print we z-score that surprise and show the empirical next-day reaction after a big beat vs a big miss: the average move and a realistic 5th–95th percentile band. With the biggest-mover takeaway and detailed analysis. This read resumes when a real macro-print feed lands — until then it stays unavailable rather than show an estimate.
SPY
Macro reaction
The macro-reaction read needs a real macro-print history (CPI / NFP / FOMC releases and the next-day returns that followed) and it is not connected right now. Nothing is estimated in its place.
Resumes automatically when a real macro-print feed lands — nothing is shown in its place until then.